← Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
decks
2
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.7%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1337
· range 1235–1440
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1226
Q3 1428
1648
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
